Today's calendar is not particularly full but is the last trading day in an eventful 2011. The latter combined with very thin markets may result in some movements, but the trading session in Asia (night/morning) has so far been very calm - focus on fixings at 2.15 p.m. and 5.00 p.m. EURJPY has consolidated very close to 100 with rumours of massive stops just below - for short-term speculators the level of 100 will function as a 'red cloth before an angry bull'. In the currently thin markets an 'attack' on the level of 100 will be fairly 'cheap' and thus more likely but also easier to 'defend'. A downward breach of this level will actually open up for a long-term movement towards 90. In the short term, we consider a correction early in the year fairly likely, and we remove our BUY recommendation but will still look for a BUY recommendation somewhere below 100.
Next week will really be characterised by economic indicators. On Monday, PMI data for industry in Europe and Sweden will be announced. On Tuesday, PMI data for industry in Norway, Switzerland, the UK and the US will be announced. On Wednesday/Thursday, the slightly less important PMI service figures in the same countries will be released and on Friday the important employment figures from the US will be published. In other words, we are in for an exciting start of the new year, and if we combine the prospects above with respect to economic indicators with the excitement about the Southern European interest rates (will the banks start buying up in the beginning of 2012), we are in for wide fluctuations.
EUR/USD (NEUTRAL): We maintain our recommendation of placing a sell order at 128.49. The beginning of 2012 may go both ways, and it should not come as a surprise if, in early 2012, we adjust our recommendation to BUY although we anticipate a lower EUR/USD for the long term.
EUR/PLN (SELL to NEUTRAL): We reached our recommended buy-order level at 440.50. The recommendation was spot on - the cross rose by 1.5% over the day to above 446. BUT the central bank decided (slightly unexpectedly) to intervene (cheap action in the thin market), and hence the cross has declined again. We maintain our recommendation and expect to reach 451.50 again. Today, currentaccount data (Q3) will be released.
EUR/SEK (NEUTRAL): As mentioned over the past days, we still believe that the cross looks attractive for an upward movement. Therefore, we have also issued a long-term investment case - read here. We recommend investors to buy an options strategy.
EUR/GBP (BUY): The cross has increased slightly and has breached 83.75 as the first point of resistance and if it closes above 84.25, 86.50 will be within close reach.
EUR/JPY (NEUTRAL): The SELL recommendation has been closed (+2.15%).
Next week will really be characterised by economic indicators. On Monday, PMI data for industry in Europe and Sweden will be announced. On Tuesday, PMI data for industry in Norway, Switzerland, the UK and the US will be announced. On Wednesday/Thursday, the slightly less important PMI service figures in the same countries will be released and on Friday the important employment figures from the US will be published. In other words, we are in for an exciting start of the new year, and if we combine the prospects above with respect to economic indicators with the excitement about the Southern European interest rates (will the banks start buying up in the beginning of 2012), we are in for wide fluctuations.
EUR/USD (NEUTRAL): We maintain our recommendation of placing a sell order at 128.49. The beginning of 2012 may go both ways, and it should not come as a surprise if, in early 2012, we adjust our recommendation to BUY although we anticipate a lower EUR/USD for the long term.
EUR/PLN (SELL to NEUTRAL): We reached our recommended buy-order level at 440.50. The recommendation was spot on - the cross rose by 1.5% over the day to above 446. BUT the central bank decided (slightly unexpectedly) to intervene (cheap action in the thin market), and hence the cross has declined again. We maintain our recommendation and expect to reach 451.50 again. Today, currentaccount data (Q3) will be released.
EUR/SEK (NEUTRAL): As mentioned over the past days, we still believe that the cross looks attractive for an upward movement. Therefore, we have also issued a long-term investment case - read here. We recommend investors to buy an options strategy.
EUR/GBP (BUY): The cross has increased slightly and has breached 83.75 as the first point of resistance and if it closes above 84.25, 86.50 will be within close reach.
EUR/JPY (NEUTRAL): The SELL recommendation has been closed (+2.15%).
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